Your morning coffee could get cheaper, World Bank says
Global coffee prices are expected to decline through 2028 as production reaches record levels, according to the World Bank‘s October 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook.
The bank forecasts Arabica prices will fall by 13% in 2026, followed by declines of 2% in 2027 and 3% in 2028. Robusta prices are expected to decline by 21% this year before stabilising over the next two years.
Global coffee production is projected to reach a record 190 million 60-kilogram bags in the 2026–2027 growing season, up 6% from the previous season.
Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, is expected to increase output by 14%. Higher harvests are also anticipated in Colombia, Ethiopia and Vietnam.
Average Arabica prices are forecast to fall from $8.47 per kilogram in 2025 to $7.35 in 2026 and $7.20 in 2027. Robusta prices could decline from $4.86 to $3.85 per kilogram this year.
Why could coffee prices rise again?
Despite the longer-term outlook, coffee prices increased in the third quarter of 2026 following two quarters of declines.
Arabica prices rose by 10% between July and September, partly because of excessive rainfall in Brazil and an earthquake that damaged coffee-processing facilities in Colombia.
Robusta prices increased by 6% during the same period amid unfavourable weather and earthquake-related disruptions in Indonesia.
The World Bank also warned that a strong El Niño weather pattern could threaten future harvests. Drought and extreme heat may affect production in Vietnam and Central America, while excessive rainfall could damage crops in Brazil and Colombia.
More severe weather disruptions could keep prices higher than forecast.
