According to data from the prediction market Polymarket, the US president Donald Trump has a 4% chance of receiving this year’s Nobel Peace Prize. The figure is lower than that of Yulia Navalnaya but still higher than environmental activist Greta Thunberg.
The frontrunner is Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, who holds a commanding 68% probability of winning. Her support among Polymarket participants is more than three times higher than that of the second-placed contender — the Sudanese humanitarian coalition Emergency Response Rooms, which stands at 18%. Navalnaya follows in third place with 8%.
Trump’s odds are roughly...