In 2024, Central Asia’s economy outpaced expectations, with regional growth reaching 5.4%, compared to 5% in 2023. Domestic demand remained robust, steady remittance inflows and infrastructure investment contributed significantly. Both oil exporters and importers saw upgrades of around one percentage point from initial projections. Despite this, the IMF forecasts growth will slow to 4.9% in 2025, fall further to 4.3% in 2026 and ease to about 3.8% over the medium term.
Several trends explain the projected deceleration:
Oil output is levelling off after temporary boosts recorded in previous years. Positive spillovers from the Ukraine war, particularly in trade and remittance flows, are...