S&P Global Ratings has upgraded the credit rating of state-owned enterprise Navoiuran from BB- to BB, whilst maintaining a stable outlook. The agency attributed this decision to the company’s substantial surge in uranium output and its manageable debt burden.
Navoiuran increased its uranium oxide production by 35% in 2025, following a 30% rise the previous year. Over the period between 2024 and 2026, the firm’s total output expanded by more than 80%. S&P analysts noted the company achieved these capacity gains without necessitating significant capital outlays or operational disruptions.
Financial resilience and production outlook
Despite the volume surge, the company’s EBITDA slipped from 7.9 trln soums to 7.7 trln soums in 2025, primarily due to rising costs for sulphur, sulphuric acid, electricity, natural gas and labour. Consequently, the EBITDA margin contracted from 67.7% to 55.3%.
However, analysts expect a rebound in 2026, forecasting EBITDA to exceed 10 trln soums. This optimism stems from a projected 20% growth in sales volume and a 13% increase in global uranium prices. Navoiuran remains committed to expansion, with annual capital expenditure expected to reach between 4.5 trln and 5.5 trln soums over the next three years.
Global market trends and strategic partnerships
The global uranium market remains robust, with prices currently hovering around $86 per pound. S&P anticipates prices will average between $75 and $80 per pound in the coming years, supported by increasing interest in nuclear power for energy security and low-carbon generation.
Navoiuran is also pursuing international cooperation, including joint ventures with France’s Orano and Japan’s ITOCHU. S&P projects the enterprise will invest between $50 mln and $150 mln annually in such projects to bolster its production base. While the outlook is stable, the agency noted that Navoiuran’s credit rating remains capped by Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating due to its status as a state-owned entity.
